Istanbul – Turkey is likely to gain parliamentary approval for cross-border military operations in Syria and Iraq this week as Islamic State insurgents threaten its territory, but will be hesitant to send in troops without an internationally-enforced no-fly zone.
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Turkish tanks and armored vehicles took up positions on hills overlooking the besieged Syrian border town of Kobani on Monday as shelling by the Sunni Muslim militants intensified and stray fire hit Turkish soil.
The Islamic State advance to within clear sight of the Turkish army has piled pressure on Ankara to take a more robust stance against the militants as part of the U.S.-led coalition carrying out air strikes in Iraq and Syria.
Turkey, a NATO member with long borders with both countries, has so far declined to take a frontline role, fearful partly that the military action will strengthen Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and bolster Kurdish militants allied to Kurds in Turkey who have fought for three decades for greater autonomy.
It also argues air strikes alone will do little to address the long-term instability on its 1,200 km southern frontier.
But its rhetoric has hardened since 46 Turkish hostages, whose captivity at the hands of Islamic State militants made it wary of taking action, were released this month.
Parliament will vote on Thursday on a government proposal, expected to be submitted on Tuesday, to authorize military action in Iraq and Syria, extending a mandate initially intended to allow Turkey to strike Kurdish militants in northern Iraq and defend itself against any threat from Assad’s forces.
“We need to show solidarity. We cannot remain outside this campaign,” President Tayyip Erdogan told a meeting of the World Economic Forum in Istanbul on Sunday, vowing Turkey’s commitment to the fight against Islamic State but insisting that U.S.-led air strikes alone were not enough.
“That will not be sufficient. There is a ground dimension to it,” he said, arguing that groups fighting Islamic State, including Kurdish peshmerga forces in northern Iraq and the Iraqi army, needed to be given more support.
Pro-government newspaper Sabah said on Tuesday that two military brigades, comprising around 10,000 soldiers, were on alert on the border to secure a “safe zone” for civilians inside Syrian territory, backed if necessary by military helicopters, with fighter jets providing reconnaissance.
But senior officials have indicated that while Turkey will defend its borders, it is unlikely to intervene on the ground in Syria or Iraq unilaterally and that a no-fly zone along its frontier policed by the U.S.-led coalition is a key demand.
It is also wary of taking action around the predominantly Kurdish town of Kobani that could strengthen Syrian Kurds linked to militants who fought a three-decade insurgency in southeastern Turkey for greater Kurdish rights.
“We have first of all to assure the security of our border. That is why we should take a step with respect to a no-fly zone, and we have to have a safe zone,” Erdogan said.
DIVERGENT AIMS
Turkey first floated the idea of a no-fly zone on the Syrian side of the border more than two years ago, arguing it was necessary to tip the military balance in favor of rebels fighting Assad’s forces.
Turkish officials pushed the idea again in meetings on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York last week, but the plan has failed to gain much traction in Washington or with other members of the U.S.-led coalition.
“This has been an idea that has been out there, as you know, for some time … it’s not an easy thing to implement,” State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said on Monday, echoing comments by General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, that such a plan was not on the table.
It is more than just an operational disagreement.
Washington wants Turkey, with the second largest army in NATO and a major U.S. airbase in its southern town of Incirlik, to play a bigger role in the fight against Islamic State, but does not see the removal of Assad as part of that strategy.
Turkey, by contrast, which has been a staunch backer of the Syrian opposition, believes Assad’s departure and a long-term political strategy in Iraq are necessities if there is any hope of preventing years of instability plaguing its southern border.
“What is important for Turkey is that countries like the United States determine a comprehensive policy for Iraq and Syria,” said a senior Turkish official, adding that the release of the hostages alone would not bring about a change in stance.
“Turkey has relieved a lot (of pressure) by securing the release of its hostages but Turkey has a Syria policy and it is still continuing. The departure of Assad, the recognition of the opposition there, restoring stability and the removal of terrorist elements are all key points for Turkey,” he said.
“Every action should have a political logic.”