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New York - Gallup Poll: Presidential Race Tightens Obama +2 Points |
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Both candidates continued vigorous campaigning on Monday. One forthcoming event with the potential to affect voter sentiments is a 30-minute Barack Obama paid program, for which his campaign has purchased time on Wednesday night on a number of national broadcast and cable television networks.
The two percentage point margin for Obama over McCain in today's traditional likely voters result, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 25-27, is not the first time the race has been this close; it matches the two-point Obama margin that held for three straight reporting periods spanning Oct. 13 -17, a week and a half ago. The traditional model assumes that turnout will follow the patterns of past elections, in which both current interest in the election and past voting behavior are predictors of actual voting.
Obama's seven-point lead among expanded likely voters, based on a model which makes no assumptions about turnout based on past voting history, is fairly typical of what has been measured over the last two weeks, although slightly narrowed from the last two days' reports. Obama's lowest margin among this expanded group was four points, measured on Oct. 15-17.
Obama is also now at a seven-point margin over McCain among registered voters, 50% to 43%.
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Read Comments (33) — Post Yours »
1
Oct 28, 2008 at 07:40 PM Anonymous Says:
let's hope
2
Oct 28, 2008 at 07:45 PM Anonymous Says:
Yiden your vote counts so go out and vote John McCain
3
Oct 28, 2008 at 08:13 PM Joe the plumber Says:
The Tipp poll (the poll that had the closest prediction in the '04 elections also has it at a 2.8 gap.
For those of us in NY, Obama will carry NY.
But VIN is being read my tens of thousands around america so let's make it clear to all of you fellow jews in Pennsylvania in Phillidelphia, or in Lancaster or in Scranton etc, in Cleveland Ohio, Denver Colorado, Las Vegas Nevada, Detroit Michigan, St. Louis Misouri, Miami, Hollywood, Orlando, or Boca Raton Floridaand in New Hampshire.
USE YOUR BRAIN...
VOTE MCCAIN!!
If you consider yourself a jew you should be assamed from yourself to pull the lever for Obama!!
Keep your values in mind when you pull the Lever!!
Obama is against everything that we keep near and dear!!
(Sorry if I missed your city or neighborhood)
4
Oct 28, 2008 at 08:01 PM Joe the plumber Says:
Finally!! People are starting to realize, what's at stake, and who has the right ideas for america!!
Let's not give up!
Vote mccain!!!
5
Oct 28, 2008 at 08:36 PM Anonymous Says:
Even if you think your state is going Blue, it's better to vote for McCain because it chips away at Obama's overall numbers.
6
Oct 28, 2008 at 08:29 PM authenticsatmar Says:
What the model does not take into consideration is the 6% penalty Obama will suffer for being black as many pros are predicting.
7
Oct 28, 2008 at 08:22 PM kenedy Says:
please use your brian and vote for abame, we can use a big change in the white house
8
Oct 28, 2008 at 09:01 PM ALANJAYROS@AOL.COM Says:
the local poll in Florida shows that Jews are voting for OBAMA by 3:1
Do you belive that?
The JEWISH JOURNAL
endorsed OBAMA in their headline of this weeks paper.
9
Oct 28, 2008 at 09:27 PM Anonymous Says:
obama will not be good for the jews, be wise and use your judgement .......vote mccain
10
Oct 28, 2008 at 09:26 PM vote for McCain and not for o bum aa Says:
lets ALL go and Vote for McCain and let's get every Body out for McCain .
a vote for McCain is a vote in SUPPORT of the American system, and for ISRAEL . HOPEFULLY McCain is going to WIN
Please don't let trouble in to the white house .
11
Oct 28, 2008 at 09:39 PM American Rabbi Says:
“ the local poll in Florida shows that Jews are voting for OBAMA by 3:1
Do you belive that?
The JEWISH JOURNAL
endorsed OBAMA in their headline of this weeks paper. ”
Dont believe the polls many are liars. We must encorage all Jews to vote for McCain. This is especially true in Florida. We all have friends and relatives in Florida. We must impress upon them the importance of voting McCain.
12
Oct 28, 2008 at 09:44 PM bock Says:
“ the local poll in Florida shows that Jews are voting for OBAMA by 3:1
Do you belive that?
The JEWISH JOURNAL
endorsed OBAMA in their headline of this weeks paper. ”
That's a sure boost to the anti semitism going on there. C'mon Florida jews just keep voting for obama and suffer all the trauma. DON'T BE LAME AND VOTE FOR MCAIN!
13
Oct 28, 2008 at 09:52 PM Anonymous Says:
Yesterday Michael Savage radio host with 10 million listeners endorsed McCain. I speak to many many non Jews and they are going to vote in mass for McCain. McCain will win.
14
Oct 28, 2008 at 09:52 PM Anonymous Says:
The reason is: everyone knows that we didn't have an terrorist attack in last 7 year.who really are not afraid of a change...
15
Oct 28, 2008 at 09:51 PM Mentsh Says:
Fools; living in your insular world you have no idea of what the rest of the country needs. Clearly it is NOT McCain. The highest percentage of voters supporting McCain/Palin have the lowest levels of education. There's a reason. By the way, #11, have you not heard about the MONUMENTAL get-out-the-Jewish vote effort by Sarah Silverman in Florida? Jews are overwhelmingly Democratic because they are not single-issue voters like most of the people reading these boards.
16
Oct 28, 2008 at 10:15 PM American Rabbi Says:
“ Fools; living in your insular world you have no idea of what the rest of the country needs. Clearly it is NOT McCain. The highest percentage of voters supporting McCain/Palin have the lowest levels of education. There's a reason. By the way, #11, have you not heard about the MONUMENTAL get-out-the-Jewish vote effort by Sarah Silverman in Florida? Jews are overwhelmingly Democratic because they are not single-issue voters like most of the people reading these boards. ”
Sarah Silverman endorses Obama because she is a lackey of the Democrats. I as a Rabbi support the candidate thats good for the Jews which is John McCain. You are clearly NOT a Mentch.
17
Oct 28, 2008 at 10:24 PM Anonymous Says:
Tell the LA Times to release the tape of Obama and we will win!! (If someone has any updated news on that tape please Comment ..
18
Oct 28, 2008 at 10:49 PM Immentcsh Says:
Mentsh:
Hmmm…R you serious? “Jews Democrat for the reason of not being “single-issue voters” :)?!! Ask those jews why they vote Dem (u might get the same answer as Howard stern got in Harlem) … they have no idea why…its like a” religion” to them U basically go to the synagogue on Yom Kippur N you vote Democrat !!
Ps . and "Sarah Silverman" being the voice of the jews in Fl ..."Vey Iz Mir!!!
19
Oct 29, 2008 at 04:59 AM Anonymous Says:
Jew will vote for Stalin , if he is a Democrat.
Why this liberal leftist mentality?
20
Oct 29, 2008 at 03:35 AM Say NO to Obama Says:
Even if you live in NY, dont consider it a wasted vote if you vote with your brain and vote for McCain. Nowadays they are able to break down the voting tally and they could see how many poeple in each district voted for whom.
Also, what happens if these polls in NY are not too true and the race is closer than the drive bys want you to know??? Nothing is for sure until the polls close at 9p in NY. Besides that, I think we are in for another long election night b/c the exit polls will be incorrect again.
21
Oct 29, 2008 at 07:17 AM yakov Says:
In NY and NYC your vote for MCCain is a waste. Based upon the electoral system that is used in the USA, NY will go for Obama. You cannot refute that. Therefore by voting for MCCain you accomplish several things:
1. You tell the Democratic Party - that rules NY that they should NOT pander to you or the FRUM community.
2. You tell your local representatives that you don’t support them or their colleagues. They DONT have to pander to you.
3. You weaken the force of the Jewish Vote by showing that we DONT vote as a block. And since we don’t vote as a block we don’t need to be pandered to.
So when things, like road repair, street lights, garbage collection, street cleaning, and other local services don’t seem to be provided as quickly as they should be or used to be ask yourself why? If you don’t support your local officials and the people they support why they should jump faster for you.
There will be arguments to refute the above but you cannot claim the statements above are not true.
If you want your vote to count then move to a state where a small number of votes can swing the outcome. NY is not going to swing Republican. NJ might, FL might. Good Luck
Today’s Jewish Frum population does not seem to remember American History or never learned it. Lets review some of it.
1913 Leo Frank – Lynched in 1915 by Southern Democrats - who later turn Republican in Nixon’s Southern Strategy
NO DOGS, BLACKS OR JEWS ALLOWED – Very famous signs all over conservative America
1933 – 1945 Roosevelt Democrat – Could not directly enter war against Hitler until US attacked because of conservative – isolationist congress BUT - Didn’t Bomb Auschwitz or other camps
1948 Truman Democrat – recognized State of Israel – over conservative congressional objection
1956 Eisenhower Republican – forced Israel to withdraw from Suez after 1956 war
1966 Johnston Democrat Lets Israel have a free hand without criticism during 6 day war
1973 Nixon Republican Withholds shipments of arms to replenish Israel arms after Yom Kippur surprise attack. Causes the DEATH of extra Israel / Jewish soldiers bye his actions. Forces Israel to let the Egyptian army withdraw intact to save face.
1977 Carter Democrat We hate him now but did broker deal between Begin and Sadat
1988 Reagan Republican RECOGNIZED ARAFAT !!!! and start down the road of recognizing the PLO
1989 BUSH I Republican MADRID - FORCES SHAMIR to SIT WITH ARAFAT
BUSH I with James Baker TWISTS ISRAELS ARMS OVER LOAN Guarantees
( Democrat Congress overrides Bush )
1993 Clinton Democrat – Morally wrong – Neutral to negative on Israel
2000 Bush Republican Morally right – Talks positive but Condi twits Israel again
22
Oct 29, 2008 at 07:30 AM Anonymous Says:
“ Fools; living in your insular world you have no idea of what the rest of the country needs. Clearly it is NOT McCain. The highest percentage of voters supporting McCain/Palin have the lowest levels of education. There's a reason. By the way, #11, have you not heard about the MONUMENTAL get-out-the-Jewish vote effort by Sarah Silverman in Florida? Jews are overwhelmingly Democratic because they are not single-issue voters like most of the people reading these boards. ”
Sarah Silvermans mother is not Jewish that makes her not Jewish. Her issues are gay marriage,abortion on demand and being an atheist. These are anti Jewish values.
23
Oct 29, 2008 at 08:59 AM David Says:
Please READ This !!!!!!
This might help you make up your mind !!!
OBAMA DISTORTS AND LIES -- ALL AMERICANS TO PAY HIGHER TAXES
Senator Obama is not being truthful when he says only Americans earning $250,000 will get a tax increase.
Senator Obama plans to let the current 2007 rates lapse. The rates under Obama will return to the higher 2000 level. Senator Obama claims that letting a tax cut lapse is not a "tax increase."
But requiring Americans to pay more taxes in 2008 than in 2007 amounts to a TAX INCREASE.
For a married family, filing jointly and earning $75,000 a year, this INCREASE will be $3,074.
For a married family, filing jointly and earning $50,000, this INCREASE will be $1,512.
Even struggling American families making just $25,000 a year will see a tax INCREASE-- they'll pay $715 more in 2010 than they did in 2007.
Across the board, ALL WORKING AMERICANS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES in their taxes with Obama's plans.
Yes, it will affect Americans even if their household income is as low as $25,000.
24
Oct 29, 2008 at 09:48 AM Brian Says:
Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100.
If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:
The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
The fifth would pay $1.
The sixth would pay $3.
The seventh would pay $7.
The eighth would pay $12.
The ninth would pay $18.
The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59. So, that's what they decided to do.
The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve.
"Since you are all such good customers," he said, "I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20. Drinks for the ten now cost just $80.
The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free.
But what about the other six men - the paying customers? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his 'fair share?'
They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.
And so:
The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings).
The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33% savings).
The seventh now pay $5 instead of $7 (28% savings).
The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).
The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings).
The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).
Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free.
But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.
"I only got a dollar out of the $20, "declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man," but he got $10!" "Yeah, that's right," exclaimed the fifth man. "I only saved a dollar, too. It's unfair that he got TEN times more than I!" "That's true!!" shouted the seventh man. "Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!" "Wait a minute," yelled the first four men in unison. "We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!"
The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.
The next night the tenth man didn't show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn't have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!
And that, boys and girls, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore.
In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.
For those who understand, no explanation is needed. For those who do not understand, no explanation is possible.
25
Oct 29, 2008 at 11:53 AM Anonymous Says:
Folks, get over it. Obama is going to win, and he's going to be a big improvement. I don't get all the hysteria. If Obama's tax plan is "socialism" then Ronald Reagan's must have been communism, because Obama's proposed rates are lower than Reagan's were. Bush & McCain are in favor of unnaturally low top rates that harm the middle class (60% of Americans' incomes have gone down since 2001, adjusted for inflation) and create crushing deficits. I think the Republicans need a period of exile to come up with some good ideas since they are clearly out of them.
26
Oct 29, 2008 at 11:47 AM Anonymous Says:
“ Dont believe the polls many are liars. We must encorage all Jews to vote for McCain. This is especially true in Florida. We all have friends and relatives in Florida. We must impress upon them the importance of voting McCain. ”
The reason the polls show jews especially the senior citizens voting obama is because they are afraid to express their views to pollsters or in front of their live in caretakers many of whom are black. The older Jews are not fools. The fools are the young stupid shnooks who never had a Jewish education who support obama blindly like so many foolish jews supported communism.
27
Oct 29, 2008 at 01:33 PM Charlie Hall Says:
Margin is back up to 3 points today.
28
Oct 29, 2008 at 07:47 PM Oy Gevald Says:
"yakov Says: In NY and NYC your vote for MCCain is a waste. Based upon the electoral system that is used in the USA, NY will go for Obama. You cannot refute that. Therefore by voting for MCCain you accomplish several things:
1. You tell the Democratic Party - that rules NY that they should NOT pander to you or the FRUM community.
2. You tell your local representatives that you don’t support them or their colleagues. They DONT have to pander to you."
Hey, Yakov, not everything in life is rational. While what you say here sounds good, it is not the way to get anything changed. You seem to have forgotten the Dem's favorites, the Clinton's, who forever embarrased our great nation with their immoral antics. Any moral Jew should stand up for morality and make the Dem's pay the price. Don't you worry about politicians not pandering to our community. You forgot the magic word that brings them running: "money". Without money from constituents they can't party away as they must do to survive. While I may not have all the answers to refute you line-by-line, greater activists than either you or me will surely know how to have the politicians play into their hands. Don't dare vote democRATic. DEMOCRATS PHEWY!
29
Oct 29, 2008 at 07:33 PM Anonymous Says:
“ Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100.
If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:
The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
The fifth would pay $1.
The sixth would pay $3.
The seventh would pay $7.
The eighth would pay $12.
The ninth would pay $18.
The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59. So, that's what they decided to do.
The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve.
"Since you are all such good customers," he said, "I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20. Drinks for the ten now cost just $80.
The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free.
But what about the other six men - the paying customers? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his 'fair share?'
They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.
And so:
The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings).
The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33% savings).
The seventh now pay $5 instead of $7 (28% savings).
The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).
The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings).
The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).
Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free.
But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.
"I only got a dollar out of the $20, "declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man," but he got $10!" "Yeah, that's right," exclaimed the fifth man. "I only saved a dollar, too. It's unfair that he got TEN times more than I!" "That's true!!" shouted the seventh man. "Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!" "Wait a minute," yelled the first four men in unison. "We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!"
The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.
The next night the tenth man didn't show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn't have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!
And that, boys and girls, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore.
In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.
For those who understand, no explanation is needed. For those who do not understand, no explanation is possible. ”
How do you translate that so the democrats would understand it ?
30
Oct 29, 2008 at 09:06 PM Anonymous Says:
Obama can't seem to close the deal. He had to spend millions today to show an 30 minute infomercial on TV to buy the election. He was able to spend so much money because he went back on his promise about campaign finance. I'm a New Yorker and voting for McCain. If Obama is spending so much time in Virginia, a red state, then obviously things are not the way they seem. Your vote will not be wasted. Vote your gut and don't listen to the polls. I guess the media has forgotten their role in 2000.
31
Oct 30, 2008 at 07:32 AM Anonymous Says:
Move to Florida to make your vote count
32
Oct 30, 2008 at 07:41 AM Shimi Says:
What Yakov is saying is right. Mixed record by all parties. Not all Republicans are bad and not all Democrats are bad. BTW it was Nixon - a Republican - who appointed the "liberal" judges that allowed the constitution to be interpreted to have a right to privacy - the bases for Roe V Wade - a Republican.
33
Oct 30, 2008 at 10:14 AM Rove is the new Atwater Says:
“ Obama can't seem to close the deal. He had to spend millions today to show an 30 minute infomercial on TV to buy the election. He was able to spend so much money because he went back on his promise about campaign finance. I'm a New Yorker and voting for McCain. If Obama is spending so much time in Virginia, a red state, then obviously things are not the way they seem. Your vote will not be wasted. Vote your gut and don't listen to the polls. I guess the media has forgotten their role in 2000. ”
If Obama is campaigning in VA, it may be because he thinks that he has a chance to close the gap there. Most candidates in the last weeks of campaign, when time is limited, do not campaign in states where they don't think they have a chance. That's why McCain won't be campaigning in IL and Obama will be skipping TX.
I do agree that you should vote for the candidate whom you think is better, and shouldn't stay home just because the polls may imply your vote would be "wasted". Not to mention that there are plenty of local races/ referendums to vote on too.