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West Bank - A Broader Israel-Arab Deal: Rare Opportunity Or Diversion?

Published on: February 16, 2017 09:31 PM
By: AP
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FILE - in this Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2017 file photo, US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. Trump and Netanyahu said at their first joint news conference that they will seize what they believe is an opportunity for an ambitious Israeli-Arab peace deal. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, File)FILE - in this Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2017 file photo, US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. Trump and Netanyahu said at their first joint news conference that they will seize what they believe is an opportunity for an ambitious Israeli-Arab peace deal. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, File)

West Bank - President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have pledged to seize what they believe is an opportunity for an ambitious Israeli-Arab peace deal. The premise is that Sunni Arab countries — pushed closer to Israel and the U.S. by the fear of regional rival Iran and its nuclear ambitions — can play an active role in future negotiations, perhaps nudging the Palestinians toward a deal they might otherwise reject. A rare opening or wishful thinking? Here’s a look.

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WHAT DID TRUMP AND NETANYAHU PROPOSE?

At the leaders’ first joint news conference on Wednesday, Netanyahu said some Arab countries see Israel “increasingly as an ally,” suggesting they are driven by concern over Iranian expansionism and the spread of Islamic militancy. “This change in our region creates an unprecedented opportunity to strengthen security and advance peace,” he said in urging Trump to “seize this moment together.”

Trump said he wants to pursue “a much bigger deal” in the Mideast that would include “many, many countries.” He suggested there’s Arab interest, saying, “We have some pretty good cooperation from people who in the past would never, ever have even thought of doing this.”

Neither leader provided specifics, though Trump said both Israelis and Palestinians would have to make concessions. Both men refused to endorse a traditional pillar of U.S. policy — a Palestinian state alongside Israel as the preferred solution to the long-running conflict.

WHAT IS THE OFFICIAL ARAB VIEW?

An Arab peace initiative presented by Saudi Arabia in 2002 offered Israel normalization with dozens of Arab and Muslim countries in exchange for an Israel withdrawal from the lands it captured in 1967 — including the West Bank, Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem, where a state of Palestine would be established.

The initiative, which also called for a “just solution” for several million Palestinian refugees and their descendants, was reaffirmed later by the 22-member Arab League. Arab foreign ministers, meeting in Cairo next month, are expected to do so again, according to a draft resolution obtained by The Associated Press.

Israeli governments have balked at such a withdrawal, even if tempered by land swaps with the Palestinians. Israeli lawmaker Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the U.S., said Thursday that full withdrawal and the refugee clause were non-starters for Israel, but that other elements, including normalization, were “very positive.” The Saudis have rejected Israeli calls for a revision, saying the plan remains on the table.

SIGNS OF AN ARAB THAW?

Sunni-led Gulf Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, share with Israel a deep distrust of Shiite power Iran. They see Iran as a meddlesome and destabilizing force in the region that is intent on asserting its dominance through support for militant groups from Lebanon, Syria and Iraq to Yemen and the Gulf itself.

Officially, the Gulf states do not recognize Israel, though the United Arab Emirates has in recent years allowed Israeli citizens entry to participate in sporting events or meetings of the International Renewable Energy Agency. Netanyahu frequently boasts of quiet ties with Arab countries that he refuses to identify.

In a sign of the region’s deepening sectarian divide, Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah, taunted Sunni Arab leaders Thursday, saying: “Would someone please reply to Netanyahu? Someone with some honor? Tell him, ‘No, you are a liar, you are still our enemy?’”

WHAT DOES ISRAEL ENVISION?

Netanyahu believes the interests of Sunni Arab countries increasingly align with those of Israel. Netanyahu’s warm ties with Trump, on display Wednesday, could enhance the perception that Israel can help countries in the region gain access to U.S. administration officials.

Israel already has formal relations and close security ties with Egypt and Jordan, in a shared struggle against Islamic militants. It also is believed to be quietly sharing intelligence with some of the Gulf countries.

Yaakov Amidror, Netanyahu’s former security adviser, said Thursday that the aim is to take an Israeli-Sunni Arab alliance out of the shadows. “I am not speaking about covertly. That is happening anyhow,” he said.

A first step would be more open security coordination, including intelligence sharing with Israel, which he said is “essential” for Sunni Arab countries facing an Iranian threat.

On Thursday, The Wall Street Journal quoted several Middle Eastern officials as saying the Trump administration is in talks with Arab allies about such an intelligence-sharing arrangement.

An Israeli-Arab alliance could then help negotiate “something that the Palestinians are not ready to do today,” Amidror said, adding that one challenge would be public opposition to Arab engagement with Israel in the absence of a peace deal with the Palestinians. That’s why U.S. engagement is important, he said.

Support for Palestinians, while not the rallying issue it once was, remains popular among Gulf citizens.

WHAT ABOUT THE PALESTINIANS?

Palestinian officials believe it is unlikely Arab states will cut a separate deal with Israel. “The Arabs will not accept anything the Palestinians don’t,” said Nasser al-Kidweh, an official in President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah party.

Analyst Ali Jerbawi said there’s a possibility Abbas will come under more pressure from U.S.-allied countries in the region to accept a lesser deal with Israel at a time when Netanyahu and Trump appear so close.

Since Netanyahu came to power in 2009, he and Abbas have been unable to hold meaningful talks because of vast gaps on basic issues.

WHAT DO OTHERS SAY?

Much of the international community remains committed to a two-state solution as the only path forward. On Thursday, the United Nations and the Arab League endorsed the establishment of a Palestinian state in a joint statement. Last month representatives from dozens of countries reiterated the need for a two-state solution.

Mideast analyst Fawaz Gerges said Arab leaders wouldn’t dare strike separate deals with Israel.

“The Arab states have already been dealing with Israel for quite some times. Iran now is a bigger threat than Israel, in the eyes of the Arab street, in the Gulf in particular,” he said. Still, he said, “the Arab position is that the only way forward with Israel is to make peace with the Palestinians, based on the Arab Peace Initiative.”

Israeli suggestions of a closer alliance with Arab countries, ahead of any deal with the Palestinians, are a “pipe dream,” he said.



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 Feb 17, 2017 at 08:07 AM SandmanNY Says:

Amazing. This is classic Middle Eastern politics wherein "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." It makes for strange bedfellows, as the saying goes. It's often a short term (and short lived) solution to a long term problem. Abbas is not long for this world, considering his heavy smoking and octogenarian status. Whoever arises after him (a puppet of Barghouti - or Barghouti himself?) will be a bear to deal with. Let us cry out for Moshiach. That's the true out of the box solution.

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