Jerusalem – After eight days of the fiercest fighting in years, a cease-fire agreement between Israel and the Gaza Strip’s Hamas rulers could usher in a new era of relations between the bitter foes. The renewed quiet on both home fronts raises questions about what those involved gained, and lost, from the fighting and its aftermath.
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ISRAEL AND PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU
Israel secured an agreement to stop the persistent rocket fire from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel without launching a ground invasion into Gaza or losing the support of its international allies. Netanyahu’s bid for re-election in January could be vastly strengthened by the operation and by the killing of Hamas militant leader Ahmed Jabari on the first day of fighting. Netanyahu got the backing of President Barack Obama during the fighting, a significant achievement after their already shaky relationship grew colder when Netanyahu was perceived to favor Republican nominee Mitt Romney during the recent U.S. election. Israel also secured a commitment from the U.S. to help stop weapons smuggling into Gaza.
HAMAS
The Islamic militant group that rules Gaza gained significant international credibility, with Arab and Turkish diplomats pouring into the Palestinian territory to show support. Though it has been branded a terror group by Israel and the United States, it was treated as an equal partner with Israel during indirect cease-fire talks in Egypt. In those talks, it secured a commitment for the freer movement of people and goods into and out of Gaza. Hamas also proved its ability to fire rockets as far as Tel Aviv and Jerusalem despite being battered with airstrikes. As the Arab Spring brings Islamists to power across the region, Hamas’ influence is on the rise.
PALESTINIAN PRESIDENT MAHMOUD ABBAS AND FATAH
Abbas, who lost control of Gaza to Hamas five years ago, might be the biggest loser. He had no seat in the cease-fire negotiations and was largely sidelined during the crisis. Hamas’ ability to stand up to Israel and survive could also diminish Palestinians’ patience with their president’s so far fruitless efforts to push for a negotiated solution to the conflict with Israel. Abbas’ Western-backed government only rules in the West Bank, and his dreams of reconciling the rival Palestinian territories seems more elusive than ever.
EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT MOHAMMED MORSI
The former Muslim Brotherhood leading figure emerged from his first major international crisis with enhanced prestige and proved his government can mediate between the two sworn enemies, something the United States cannot do because it considers Hamas a terrorist organization and doesn’t allow contacts between its members and American officials. Egypt’s sponsorship of the cease-fire ensures Morsi a central role in the future of the region.
THE UNITED STATES
While the Obama administration has sought to refocus its foreign policy on Asia, the Gaza fighting forced it to turn back to a conflict it has sought to move past. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s last-minute shuttle diplomacy might have strengthened a U.S.-Egyptian partnership that has been strained in the 21 months since Egyptians toppled autocratic ruler Hosni Mubarak. After a first term characterized by repeated failures in forging Israeli-Palestinian peace, the U.S. role in supporting the cease-fire could signal renewed American engagement in the region. A U.S. commitment to help stop arms smuggling to Gaza may also help repair Obama’s strained relationship with Netanyahu.
I think that Iran was another winner. After Gaza, Bibi’s rhetoric about Iran will die down. He has seen that a week of missile and rocket attacks was difficult for Israelis and that they might not be ready to take on a much bigger assault that would follow an attack on Iran. He will first want to get more Iron Dome emplacements to face Hizbollah in the north, and newer systems to deal with the Medium Range Balistic Missiles that Iran possesses before engaging that country.