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Des Moines, IA - Great Lakes No Help For A Struggling Trump On Road To 270

Published on: August 14, 2016 06:00 PM
By: AP
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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump takes a tour of McLanahan Corporation headquarters, a company that manufactures mineral and agricultural equipment, Friday, Aug. 12, 2016, in Hollidaysburg, Pa. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump takes a tour of McLanahan Corporation headquarters, a company that manufactures mineral and agricultural equipment, Friday, Aug. 12, 2016, in Hollidaysburg, Pa. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Des Moines, IA -  The numbers are stark for Donald Trump. Down in Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina.

Hillary Clinton is starting to spend a little money in Georgia and Arizona, states that any Republican running for president ought to be able to count on.

The road to 270 electoral votes — the threshold to clinch the presidency — increasingly looks to be a series of uphill climbs and dead ends for Trump in the usual collection of most competitive states.

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The GOP nominee needs a place to reset the electoral map, and stops this past week in Michigan and Pennsylvania suggest he’s looking at the industrial heartland states on the Great Lakes. It’s a part of the country where he has said he can compete with Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Trump will find the going there no easier than anywhere else.

“Trump has to start making some moves,” said Stephan Thompson, a senior adviser to Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wis. “We need to see a positive week out of him to create a positive trajectory. You’re not seeing that anywhere, whether it’s in Wisconsin, Ohio or elsewhere.”

With three months to go until the Nov. 8 vote, the map for Trump is foreboding.

Early voting will not begin until next month, giving people ample opportunity to change their minds. But Clinton has a clear advantage in national and state preference polls at a critical moment in the campaign — after the conventions and as voters start paying serious attention to the race.

If Clinton claims states such as Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina, where recent polls suggest she has a significant lead, Trump would need to win most of the states bordering one of the Great Lakes to have any chance at reaching 270.

That’s provided he wins in Florida. A loss there, and he’ll need to sweep all but Illinois and New York, states firmly in Clinton’s column.

Right now, Trump doesn’t have a lead in any of the states where he will need to win and where recent polling exists, and in several states, he’s significantly behind Clinton.

Trump in running against history, too.

While Ohio has tipped back and forth in recent decades, a Republican presidential nominee has not carried Wisconsin since 1984, and Pennsylvania or Michigan since 1988. It was in Michigan where Trump delivered his indictment this past week of trade measures enacted under recent Democratic presidents, especially the North American Free Trade Agreement.

“Every policy that has failed this city and so many others is a policy supported by Hillary Clinton,” Trump told the Detroit Economic Club. “Trade deals like NAFTA, signed by her husband, that have shipped your jobs to Mexico and other countries.”

Clinton is quietly banking that voters once angry about NAFTA have accepted it or have retired since the pact was enacted two decades ago. She opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an Asian trade agreement she backed as secretary of state, but said at her own Michigan event this past week that “the answer is not to rant and rave and cut ourselves off from the world.”

Paul Maslin, a Democratic pollster in Wisconsin, said, “People have moved beyond trade, and fixing some old problem. They actually look for and respond more to future plans.”

Trump angered suburban Milwaukee’s Republicans in April when he sharply criticized Walker before losing the presidential primary. Last month, Trump toyed with not endorsing House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., before the state’s Aug. 9 primary, when Ryan walloped a little-known challenger.

“In Wisconsin, Trump’s negatives are deeper and fresher,” said Republican pollster Ed Goeas. An independent poll released this past week by Marquette University found Trump down 15 percentage points among likely voters in the state.

Though Clinton’s team isn’t advertising on television in either Michigan or Wisconsin, she is hardly ignoring the states. The campaign has staff in both, and Clinton’s running mate, Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, was in Milwaukee this month.

Clinton followed Trump to Michigan this past week, making a stop in the Detroit area that was more tactically precise than the billionaire’s speech to the city’s well-heeled business leaders. She spoke in Warren, the heart of working-class McComb County, northeast of Detroit, at a former auto parts manufacturing plant now being used to make military aircraft equipment.

“The door is closing fast,” said Michigan Democratic strategist Amy Chapman, President Barack Obama’s senior Michigan adviser in his 2008 and 2012 campaigns. “If the numbers look like this in a month, I’ll feel better.”

Trump was playing to a wider industrial audience during his economic address in Detroit, promoting “American steel” and “energy mined from American sources” — obvious signals to nearby Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Winning there will require motivating an overwhelming number of white, working-class voters in places such as western and central Pennsylvania and southeastern Ohio. And overcoming his current gap with Clinton. While polls show Clinton with an edge in Ohio, they peg her with an outright lead in Pennsylvania.

Ray Zaborney, a Harrisburg, Pennsylvania-based GOP campaign operative who advises most of the state’s Republican legislative candidates, said Trump is doing the right things in Pennsylvania, adding staff and making smart travel decisions. Still, he said, Trump “has got to find his groove and stay on his message.”

“It’s on his shoulders to turn it in the right direction,” Zaborney said.



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Read Comments (17)  —  Post Yours »

1

 Aug 14, 2016 at 06:38 PM Trumpforprez Says:

Donald has already won. Whether he wins the elections or not, the man has started a movement. This movement is about challenging Washington's status quo. Its about both parties being basically the same wit slightly different flavors. Its about reevaluating if our decades old 20th century polices are necessarily the way forward in the 21st century. Is Nato still relevant? is our treaties with China still relevant? These are important questions to ask. And its a shame that Trump may loose because Hilary will keep the old failed status quo. But the movement will live on. And if we do loose in 2020 we will perhaps get someone more polished who can win the white house.

2

 Aug 14, 2016 at 07:23 PM amerikaner Says:

how can any decent American citizen vote for a LIAR, a crook, etc. for President?

PRESIDENT TRUMP will straighten out America with LAW & ORDER

3

 Aug 14, 2016 at 07:48 PM Anonymous Says:

Originally the delegates to the conventions that nominated candidates were not chosen directly by the people; they were chosen for the most part by elected officials of each state. Ordinary citizens had little direct input. It was believed that the citizen on the street level wouldn't choose wisely. How right they were!
In the old format, incompetents & crooks such as Obama, Hillary, & Trump would never have had a chance. With the present "enhanced" democracy of direct citizen participation we are now stuck with some awful choices where the best salesman wins and which crook and liar do you prefer!!

4

 Aug 14, 2016 at 07:51 PM yankee96 Says:

any jew who votes for the machshaifa is putting a muslim in the oval office and than kiss Israel good bye

5

 Aug 14, 2016 at 08:28 PM Trump Says:

I'm a trump supporter.

I don't care what they say. It's true.


The media is dishonest. And we all know it.

That's the sad part.

6

 Aug 14, 2016 at 08:53 PM Anonymous Says:

Reply to #2  
amerikaner Says:

how can any decent American citizen vote for a LIAR, a crook, etc. for President?

PRESIDENT TRUMP will straighten out America with LAW & ORDER

Ha ha - when you asked how can anyone vote for a liar and a crook I thought you were referring to Trump!!!

7

 Aug 14, 2016 at 08:58 PM Anonymous Says:

Reply to #4  
yankee96 Says:

any jew who votes for the machshaifa is putting a muslim in the oval office and than kiss Israel good bye

And I counter with: Any Jew who puts the immoral , hypocritical , maniacal meshugenah Trump in office is putting Israel in danger . Why don't you go to Israel and ask Israelis whom they prefer.

8

 Aug 14, 2016 at 09:51 PM qazxc Says:

Thank Gd most Americans have already rejected this dictator wannabe.

9

 Aug 14, 2016 at 09:54 PM JoeField1 Says:

Reply to #1  
Trumpforprez Says:

Donald has already won. Whether he wins the elections or not, the man has started a movement. This movement is about challenging Washington's status quo. Its about both parties being basically the same wit slightly different flavors. Its about reevaluating if our decades old 20th century polices are necessarily the way forward in the 21st century. Is Nato still relevant? is our treaties with China still relevant? These are important questions to ask. And its a shame that Trump may loose because Hilary will keep the old failed status quo. But the movement will live on. And if we do loose in 2020 we will perhaps get someone more polished who can win the white house.

Rubbish, just wait for after Trump losses the election, all the republicans will take off their gloves and blame Trump and the crazy right wingers like you for the loss. By the way I am glad that you and 99% of the orthodox Jews who support Trump live in the tri-state area; your vote counts for zilch.

Finally it sounds like you are seeing that your pipe-dream is going up into flames.

10

 Aug 14, 2016 at 09:58 PM JoeField1 Says:

Reply to #5  
Trump Says:

I'm a trump supporter.

I don't care what they say. It's true.


The media is dishonest. And we all know it.

That's the sad part.

You are right we all know it, because the hate radio said so.

11

 Aug 14, 2016 at 11:23 PM LuckyStrike Says:

Reply to #1  
Trumpforprez Says:

Donald has already won. Whether he wins the elections or not, the man has started a movement. This movement is about challenging Washington's status quo. Its about both parties being basically the same wit slightly different flavors. Its about reevaluating if our decades old 20th century polices are necessarily the way forward in the 21st century. Is Nato still relevant? is our treaties with China still relevant? These are important questions to ask. And its a shame that Trump may loose because Hilary will keep the old failed status quo. But the movement will live on. And if we do loose in 2020 we will perhaps get someone more polished who can win the white house.

What good is "the movement" if it was killed by its creator?

12

 Aug 15, 2016 at 08:30 AM Realistic Yid Says:

Although I supported Trump in the primaries, and qvelled, whenever he defeated his opponents one by one, I can no longer support him. Unfortunately, that man's mouth is his own worst enemy. Despite his own family imploring him to "cool it", he can't control his self destructive outbursts. His non-stop, attacks on the press have not endeared him to the general electorate. I really don't think that he wants to be President, as he's stated that he would miss his business. Rather, he just wants to run for the office, and shake things up. Also, I don't think that he will gain any points in the upcoming debates. Unfortunately, the public is going to be tortured for the next three months with this circus! I am not happy with Hillary either; however, Trump has blown any chance that he previously had to win!

13

 Aug 15, 2016 at 09:49 AM yaakov doe Says:

I fail to see how the frum community can support such an immoral man under any circumstances. He was publicly dating wife # 2 while married to wife #1 and fathered his younger daughter well before he married the baby's mother. Such is not acceptable to me. There are 3 other candidates top vote for in November.

14

 Aug 15, 2016 at 11:58 AM Trumpforprez Says:

Reply to #9  
JoeField1 Says:

Rubbish, just wait for after Trump losses the election, all the republicans will take off their gloves and blame Trump and the crazy right wingers like you for the loss. By the way I am glad that you and 99% of the orthodox Jews who support Trump live in the tri-state area; your vote counts for zilch.

Finally it sounds like you are seeing that your pipe-dream is going up into flames.

Just wait till 2020 when you all see how Hilary's same old republican hawkish approach has continously destroyed our country.
I am not a right winger by the way. I do not like Bush and think Obama did a better job in many ways. (i should note that I love Bush as a person. But I think his policies were flawed.) I think Hilary is more like Bush.
Oh and my coworkers 99% secular mostly support Trump. So its not just orthdox jews. And there are a few thousand employees in my office. Unfortunately its not representative of the greater tri-state area. But its not just jews.
Yes its unfortunate that my pipe dream is going up in flames. Just as as its a shame the Goldwater lost to Johnson in 64. IT ushered in run away government spending and a failed war on poverty not to mention a failed expansion of the Vietnam war too. Let me be honest, I do not like Trump the person. I like Trump the policy maker. His policies are on target. Its a shame that he is so immoral and so demagoguery in nature. And that will bring him down. But his polices are great,.

15

 Aug 15, 2016 at 12:41 PM Anonymous Says:

Reply to #6  
Anonymous Says:

Ha ha - when you asked how can anyone vote for a liar and a crook I thought you were referring to Trump!!!

That's because you're a typical democrat/liberal, unintelligent and morally challenged.

16

 Aug 15, 2016 at 12:42 PM Anonymous Says:

Reply to #7  
Anonymous Says:

And I counter with: Any Jew who puts the immoral , hypocritical , maniacal meshugenah Trump in office is putting Israel in danger . Why don't you go to Israel and ask Israelis whom they prefer.

Israelis also prefer left wing low lives in Israel as well, nothing new there,

17

 Aug 16, 2016 at 04:29 AM JoeField1 Says:

Reply to #14  
Trumpforprez Says:

Just wait till 2020 when you all see how Hilary's same old republican hawkish approach has continously destroyed our country.
I am not a right winger by the way. I do not like Bush and think Obama did a better job in many ways. (i should note that I love Bush as a person. But I think his policies were flawed.) I think Hilary is more like Bush.
Oh and my coworkers 99% secular mostly support Trump. So its not just orthdox jews. And there are a few thousand employees in my office. Unfortunately its not representative of the greater tri-state area. But its not just jews.
Yes its unfortunate that my pipe dream is going up in flames. Just as as its a shame the Goldwater lost to Johnson in 64. IT ushered in run away government spending and a failed war on poverty not to mention a failed expansion of the Vietnam war too. Let me be honest, I do not like Trump the person. I like Trump the policy maker. His policies are on target. Its a shame that he is so immoral and so demagoguery in nature. And that will bring him down. But his polices are great,.

It is totally irrelevant what you claim. You support a crazy man to be President of the US that is simple. Although, you portray yourself pure as the driven snow.

For over a year herein you proclaimed that Trump will absolutely win the election and a new horizon of sunshine will emerge (my words).no matter how many times you were told that he will lose, you continued with your blind faith that Trump will crush it, well finally for the first time I detected a smidgen of doubt that Trump will win and you pontificate that regardless if he loses he constructed a base who will in 2020 elect hardcore republicans.
Well my view after the election when your party will get a trouncing, your party would come to their senses and admit that they were totally willingly misled by a nut case and they will do whatever necessarily to eradicate this mad man from the Republican Party.

Finally, I don’t see the need to debate with you the underlying issues which differentiate the two parties because you don’t have the wherewithal to understand it. Not your fault you never got a proper civic instruction.

18

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