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New York - Moody's Analytics Election Model Predicts Clinton Win

Published on: November 1, 2016 08:30 PM
By: Reuters 
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New York - Low gas prices and President Barack Obama’s high approval ratings are key factors that favor Democrat Hillary Clinton winning the White House in next week’s election, according to a model from Moody’s Analytics that has accurately predicted the last nine U.S. presidential contests.

Clinton is forecast to pick up 332 Electoral College votes against 206 for Republican Donald Trump, Moody’s Analytics predicted on Tuesday in the final update of its model before Election Day on Nov. 8. That would match Obama’s margin of victory over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in 2012.

The Reuters-Ipsos States of the Nation project also predicts a Clinton win, with a 95 percent probability of her winning at least 278 electoral votes. A candidate needs to win at least 270 electoral votes to be elected president.

The Moody’s Analytics model is based on a combination of state-level economic conditions and political history, and has correctly called the outcome of each presidential election since Republican Ronald Reagan unseated Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Rather than focus on the individual candidates in a race, the model instead centers on whether current economic and political conditions favor the incumbent party in the White House. This year those factors point to Clinton becoming the 45th U.S. president.

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The economic factors Moody’s measures include the two-year percentage changes in real personal income per household, as well as house and gasoline prices.

Among the political factors weighed, Moody’s said the most important is the share of the vote in any one state that went to the incumbent party in the previous election. It also takes into account voter fatigue and the incumbent president’s approval ratings.

This year, with Obama enjoying some of his highest job approval ratings since his first year in office in 2009 and gasoline prices holding steady at well-below-average levels, the model suggests the Democrats will win their third straight presidential election, Moody’s said. That would mark the first time since the 1988 election of Republican George H.W. Bush that one party has won three consecutive presidential contests.

Moody’s warns, however, that its model does not take into account any individual characteristics of specific candidates.

“Given the unusual nature of the 2016 election cycle to date, it is very possible that voters will react to changing economic and political conditions differently than they have in past election cycles, placing some risk in the model outcome, particularly state-by-state projections,” Moody’s analytics economist Dan White wrote in the report.



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Read Comments (15)  —  Post Yours »

1

 Nov 01, 2016 at 08:35 PM amerikaner Says:

moodys has a 50-50 chance of being right just like anything else they predict

2

 Nov 01, 2016 at 08:40 PM NoamSane Says:

VIN pulling the Dem manure cart again

3

 Nov 01, 2016 at 09:26 PM SHEPSEL Says:

Why does VIN news love to predict misery? There are many other models which have predicted a Trump win, why not report something positive.

4

 Nov 01, 2016 at 09:41 PM chaimyossel Says:

Of all the so called heimisha blogs , VIN makes me sick with their pro liberal pro HIllary posts, almost as bad as CNN and the NY Times

5

 Nov 01, 2016 at 09:42 PM SandmanNY Says:

Why VIN bothers to quote mainstream (corrupted) sources like AP, Reuters, WP, NYT et al is beyond me. Those agencies spin the news as it is needed to be perceived. Is it a form of rechilus to do that? Or motzi shem rah? Hmmm - something to poskin.

6

 Nov 02, 2016 at 01:31 AM SHEPSEL Says:

Boycott VIN.

7

 Nov 02, 2016 at 03:18 AM ayoyo Says:

It is most likely that Hillary will win ,because ,even if the Donald has the popular vote,the electoral college most probably will give the votes for her. The political machine that has been in control for many years will not be disturbed by some non political upstart , or the will of the people.

8

 Nov 02, 2016 at 09:21 AM ayinglefunadorf Says:

Reply to #3  
SHEPSEL Says:

Why does VIN news love to predict misery? There are many other models which have predicted a Trump win, why not report something positive.

"many other models which have predicted a Trump win" Can you name one? MA Mikveh Agency doesn't count. All Prediction Markets are 92% for Hillary.

9

 Nov 02, 2016 at 09:28 AM Anonymous Says:

Reply to #5  
SandmanNY Says:

Why VIN bothers to quote mainstream (corrupted) sources like AP, Reuters, WP, NYT et al is beyond me. Those agencies spin the news as it is needed to be perceived. Is it a form of rechilus to do that? Or motzi shem rah? Hmmm - something to poskin.

"VIN mainstream sources like AP,Reuters,NYT etc" You are correct. VIN quotes MAINSTREAM sources. MAINSTREAM means most people listen and believe them. If you want to hear what the far right is interested you need to listen to RUSH. Mainstream Media reports the News, not what you would like to hear.

10

 Nov 02, 2016 at 09:35 AM Anonymous Says:

Reply to #4  
chaimyossel Says:

Of all the so called heimisha blogs , VIN makes me sick with their pro liberal pro HIllary posts, almost as bad as CNN and the NY Times

"VIN makes me sick" So why on the earth are you on VIN? To get Sick? I like VIN because it reports both sides. If VIN makes you sick you should be on a white supremacist site. They all support Trump. Pick anyone of them, you will not hear a single Pro Hillary or Mainstream word. Maybe even better: zug a bissel Thilem, learn a blat Gemoreh instead of redin narischkeits.

11

 Nov 02, 2016 at 09:47 AM Anonymous Says:

Reply to #5  
SandmanNY Says:

Why VIN bothers to quote mainstream (corrupted) sources like AP, Reuters, WP, NYT et al is beyond me. Those agencies spin the news as it is needed to be perceived. Is it a form of rechilus to do that? Or motzi shem rah? Hmmm - something to poskin.

"Mainstream corrupted sources, AP,Reuters,WP,NYT etc". Is there any sources NOT Corrupted by your standards? How about ABC, NBC, CBS, WSJ. MSNBC, LA Times,Chicago Tribune,Washington Post, Miami Herald, Google, Yahoo News etc.

12

 Nov 02, 2016 at 09:54 AM Anonymous Says:

Reply to #5  
SandmanNY Says:

Why VIN bothers to quote mainstream (corrupted) sources like AP, Reuters, WP, NYT et al is beyond me. Those agencies spin the news as it is needed to be perceived. Is it a form of rechilus to do that? Or motzi shem rah? Hmmm - something to poskin.

"Or motzi shem rah" The only one who is guilty of motzi shem ra is Trump. Did you forget Little Rubio, Lying Ted, Low energy Bush, Crooked Hillary etc. He is the first in USA Election to take motzi shem ra to his campaign. AP, Reuters etc report the news. Some pro-Trump some pro Hillary but never motzie sem ra.

13

 Nov 02, 2016 at 10:01 AM Anonymous Says:

Reply to #3  
SHEPSEL Says:

Why does VIN news love to predict misery? There are many other models which have predicted a Trump win, why not report something positive.

"Why does VIN news love to predict misery?" Your misery is my joy. Reputable new organisations like AP, Reuters and yes VIN are reporting the news. News makes some of us happy, some sad and some who don't care. If you want to be Happy all the time please join the NA NACH chevre and don't worry about Trump or Hillary.

14

 Nov 02, 2016 at 03:35 PM Anonymous Says:

Their conditions are all irrelevant because of the highly unusual criminal activity and corruption of Clinton!

15

 Nov 02, 2016 at 03:36 PM Anonymous Says:

Reply to #7  
ayoyo Says:

It is most likely that Hillary will win ,because ,even if the Donald has the popular vote,the electoral college most probably will give the votes for her. The political machine that has been in control for many years will not be disturbed by some non political upstart , or the will of the people.

Another worry is that the election will indeed be rigged and the corrupt criminal dems will find a way to pull the wool over the American people's eyes!

16

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